NOAH POLY INDEX +41.0 pts cumulative · 61% accuracy · 33W-21L │ TRACKING Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3... +13 pts │ TRACKING Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps ... +8 pts │ TRACKING Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? +7 pts │ TRACKING Will there be no change in Fed interest rates a... +5 pts │ NOAH POLY INDEX +41.0 pts cumulative · 61% accuracy · 33W-21L │ TRACKING Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3... +13 pts │ TRACKING Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps ... +8 pts │ TRACKING Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? +7 pts │ TRACKING Will there be no change in Fed interest rates a... +5 pts
NOAH edge
Our index. Our research. Our positions. We publish what we find, disclose what we trade, and track every outcome. Friday 27 February 2026
Noah Poly Index Live
+41.0
Cumulative
+11.9%
Return
61%
Accuracy
33W–21L
Record
+176%
Best Trade
4
Active
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Decibel launches fully onchain perpetuals exchange on Aptos mainnet with record-breaking activity Intelligence

Decibel launches fully onchain perpetuals exchange on Aptos mainnet with record-breaking activity

Decibel has transitioned from testing to live trading on the Aptos mainnet, launching a fully onchain perpetuals exchange that achieved over 700,000 registered accounts and more than one million tr...

Noah Newsroom 27 Feb Read full story →
Markets

Decibel launches fully on-chain derivatives exchange on Aptos with cross-chain support and incentivised trading

Decibel, incubated by Aptos Labs, has launched a decentralised perpetual derivatives platform on the Aptos mainnet, featuring on-chain risk management, cross-chain deposits, and an expanding asset ...

27 Feb Read story →
Prediction Intelligence
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Disclosure: We actively trade on the positions identified in these reports. Our predictive algorithms detect divergences between narrative pressure and market pricing. Entries and exits are tracked in our scoreboard. You are welcome to act on this intelligence — that is why we publish it.
Consensus · Grade B
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after...
+640.0%
P&L
0c → 5c
Entry → Now
Consensus edge · EXITED
Consensus · Grade A
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?
+176.2%
P&L
10c → 28c
Entry → Now
Consensus edge · EXITED
Consensus · Grade A
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
+137.4%
P&L
6c → 18c
Entry → Now
Consensus edge · EXITED
Active Edges
Full tracker →
Event Signal Entry Status
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? We're in Consensus at 39c Intact +13 pts
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after... We're in Consensus at 43c Closing +8 pts
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? We're in Consensus at 26c Intact +7 pts
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after ... We're in Consensus at 88c Intact +5 pts
The Wire
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This is what our predictive intelligence does on open prediction markets. Imagine what it does on your sector.
208 contracts scanned. 4 active edges. 61%% directional accuracy. The same algorithms that find these edges are available for custom deployment.

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Editor's Notes

This week’s scans have been dominated by US trade policy. The tariff brackets are where the real edge is — markets are pricing certainty that the evidence doesn’t support, and our signal engine flagged it before the move began. We’re in on two of the four tariff contracts and tracking the others closely.

The insider trading story at the top of today’s edition is one to watch. If CFTC enforcement follows the pattern we’ve seen in the regulation signals, Polymarket’s settlement model may need to evolve. That creates its own set of edges.

— IM
Tips Desk
All 50 tips →

Information Asymmetry intelligence across pharma, semiconductors, and equity markets. 26 actionable signals from our latest reports. We publish what we find — some of these will take time to play out.

Pharma ↓ SHORT ELV

California just hit Anthem Blue Cross with a $15m penalty and years of oversight - real...

This is a clean, issuer-specific regulatory hit: California's DMHC says Anthem Blue Cross faces a $15m penalty plus corrective action for systemic failures a...

Conviction 81%
HIGH TRADE
$330.51 (+1.0%)
Pharma ↓ SHORT SPY

The Pomerantz wire-cluster is back - and it is signalling broader risk-premia creep, no...

This is not one lawsuit; it is a cluster of wire-driven securities-litigation notices with heavy solicitation dynamics and mixed defendants. The market angle...

Conviction 78%
HIGH TRADE
USD 687.35 (+0.7%)
Pharma ↓ SHORT IHE

FDA governance noise meets a genuinely pro-flexibility rare-disease artefact - but the ...

The system is treating “FDA governance/process uncertainty” as a sector-level negative because process friction is the silent killer of biotech option value:...

Conviction 77%
HIGH TRADE
USD 91.60 (+0.6%)
Pharma ↓ SHORT NDAQ

The ‘Nasdaq legal action’ signal is really a biotech lawsuit-overhang feed - and NDAQ i...

This is a classic wiring mistake that still contains a tradable idea. The signal label routes through “Nasdaq,” but the underlying content is securities-frau...

Conviction 75%
HIGH TRADE
USD 81.11 (+1.5%)
Pharma ↓ SHORT MAT

Fisher-Price recall risk: the story might be real, but the artefacts are missing in thi...

The call here is SHORT MAT on a negative safety and recall mechanism: if Fisher-Price recall or enforcement coverage re-accelerates, the parent can wear refu...

Conviction 75%
HIGH TRADE
USD 17.23 (-1.0%)
Pharma ↓ SHORT XBI, SPY

Halper Sadeh's PR-wire 'investigation' burst is back - the tell is not the allegations,...

This is not a single company blow-up; it's a pattern: high-volume, templated law-firm solicitation headlines framed as 'investigations' into fiduciary duty b...

Conviction 70%
HIGH TRADE
XBI $128.28 (-0.7%) | SPY $693.15 (+0.8%)
Futures Desk
Narrative pressure analysis — pre-market directional signals

Our signal engine measures narrative pressure on key assets before markets open. The Pressure Index (0–100) quantifies whether sentiment is building toward a directional move. Published daily ~1pm UK / pre-US open.

Semiconductor equities (proxy: VanEck Semicondu...
97 PI
↑↑ Narrative Pressure Accelerating
27 Feb · GZQH
crude oil futures (Brent and WTI)
92 PI
↑↑ Narrative Pressure Accelerating
27 Feb · KZPW
Crude oil futures (Brent & WTI)
— PI
↑↑ Narrative Pressure Accelerating
27 Feb · NFXQ
crude oil futures (Brent and WTI)
— PI
↔ Narrative Signal Mixed
27 Feb · MGKV
If we can find edges in prediction markets, imagine what our signal engine does with your sector. noahwire.com →
IM

This is our index. We built one of the most advanced predictive intelligence engines in the world. It scans prediction markets, pharma pipelines, litigation landscapes, and information asymmetry surfaces daily using proprietary algorithms that detect divergences between narrative pressure and market pricing — moments where what the world is saying doesn’t match what the market is doing.

When we find an edge, we publish it here and we trade it ourselves. We disclose every position we take. You are welcome to act on anything you see here — that is the point. We believe the best way to prove our technology works is to put our money where our signal is. About us & full methodology →