Noah Poly Index — Full Scoreboard
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Complete performance data from our prediction market signal engine. Every position is tracked from entry to resolution.
+41.0
Cumulative Points
61%
Directional Accuracy
33W–21L
Win-Loss Record
208
Contracts Scanned
3.4x
Profit Factor
+48.3%
Avg Winner
-15.7%
Avg Loser
Active Edges
Full tracker →
Event
Signal
Entry
Status
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? We're in
Consensus
at 39c
Intact +13 pts
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after... We're in
Consensus
at 43c
Closing +8 pts
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? We're in
Consensus
at 26c
Intact +7 pts
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after ... We're in
Consensus
at 88c
Intact +5 pts
Position History
Event
Type
Grade
Entry → Exit
P&L
Result
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the ...
CONSENSUS
B
0c → 5c
+640.0%
EXITED
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?
CONSENSUS
A
10c → 28c
+176.2%
EXITED
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
CONSENSUS
A
6c → 18c
+137.4%
EXITED
Will the U.S./Israel target an Iranian nuclear facility b...
CONSENSUS
A
12c → 11c
+72.4%
EXITED
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
CONSENSUS
B
35c → 17c
+50.0%
EXITED
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
CONSENSUS
B
35c → 17c
+50.0%
EXITED
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28?
CONSENSUS
B
31c → 100c
+46.8%
EXITED
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
CONSENSUS
A
12c → 15c
-45.8%
EXITED
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
CONSENSUS
A
35c → 14c
+44.3%
EXITED
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
CONSENSUS
B
26c → 10c
+36.5%
EXITED
Iran strike on US military by February 28?
CONSENSUS
B
25c → 14c
+36.0%
EXITED
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?
CONSENSUS
A
13c → 2c
-33.3%
EXITED
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?
CONSENSUS
A
13c → 100c
+30.8%
EXITED
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? [A?
CONSENSUS
A
17c → 8c
+28.6%
EXITED
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
CONSENSUS
B
10c → 10c
-28.6%
EXITED
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
CONSENSUS
A
21c → 24c
-27.9%
EXITED
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
CONSENSUS
A
45c → 57c
-26.4%
EXITED
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?
CONSENSUS
A
56c → 58c
-25.4%
EXITED
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
CONSENSUS
B
28c → 15c
+25.0%
EXITED
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
CONSENSUS
A
42c → 43c
-25.0%
EXITED