China's second evacuation warning signals escalating concerns over Iran security crisis

China has issued a second emergency warning for its nationals in Iran amid mounting regional tensions, advising immediate departure through multiple land routes as the security situation deteriorates.

China has issued a second emergency warning for its citizens in Iran, underscoring how seriously Beijing is treating the security situation there after weeks of mounting regional tension. Chinese officials said earlier this month that more than 470 nationals had already been moved out of Iran with diplomatic help, and embassies in Iran and neighbouring countries were still working around the clock to assist departures.

The latest alert comes after the Chinese embassy in Tehran urged nationals to leave as soon as possible through designated land crossings, including routes into Azerbaijan, Armenia, Türkiye, Iraq and Turkmenistan. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the guidance reflected the "severe security situation" in Iran and advised citizens to avoid military sites, protests and other sensitive areas.

Even so, prediction markets have barely moved. According to Crypto Briefing, the Polymarket contract on whether the US will declare war on Iran by 31 December is priced at 7% yes, down slightly from 8% the previous day. A separate contract tied to 30 April is still at 0.5% yes, suggesting traders see little immediate chance of a formal declaration.

Trading activity has also been thin. Crypto Briefing reported just $392 in USDC of volume over the past 24 hours, while the order book would need about $2,981 to shift the December contract by five points. That points to a market waiting for harder evidence of escalation, such as congressional action, sharper White House rhetoric or fresh military movements in the Gulf.

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Source: Noah Wire Services