Polymarket traders dismiss threat of major oil spike despite Strait of Hormuz tensions

Despite ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising geopolitical tensions, Polymarket traders remain sceptical that current events will trigger a dramatic surge in oil prices, reflecting market fragility and uncertainty.

Polymarket traders are showing little appetite for a dramatic oil-price spike, even as restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt a route that carries a large share of the world’s crude. According to Crypto Briefing, the contract on WTI crude reaching $160 in April has stayed at 0.4% yes, unchanged over the past day, while a separate market on crude setting a new all-time high by April 30 has slipped to 1% from 2%.

That caution sits in contrast to the wider geopolitical backdrop. Axios reported that tensions linked to the Iran conflict and pressure on shipping through the Strait have already helped push gasoline and crude prices higher this month, with analysts warning that any prolonged disruption could keep energy markets volatile. Reuters-style market logic, however, is not what is driving Polymarket’s pricing: traders appear to think the current restrictions fall short of the kind of total blockade or supply shock that would justify a four-digit oil move.

The market itself is thin. Crypto Briefing said the WTI contract sees about $54,256 in face value traded daily, but only $506 of actual USDC changing hands, meaning relatively small orders can move the odds. It would take just $1,632 to shift the market by five percentage points, a reminder that the price signal is fragile even if the headline number looks dramatic. The all-time-high market is similarly shallow, with only $2,513 in USDC volume and a $695 cost to move the odds by five points.

That leaves traders focused on whether the Strait situation escalates further. Axios has reported that analysts see a closure or a coordinated OPEC+ response as the sort of catalyst that could force a repricing, while earlier coverage suggested oil could climb far higher if the conflict deepens and shipping remains constrained. For now, though, Polymarket is effectively saying that the market is sceptical the current disruptions will be enough to send WTI to $160 this month.

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Source: Noah Wire Services