Meta legal exposure is still SHORT-shaped, but the edge is now in the timing, not the thesis
The Opportunity
The directional call remains SHORT: legal-liability narratives tend to create both direct cost risk and a persistent valuation discount when they threaten precedent. What changed is lifecycle: this is in propagation_monitor with decaying edge, meaning the story is already travelling and the easy underreaction has likely been arbitraged.
The Timing
This is INVESTIGATE rather than TRADE because the edge window is narrowing; the trade becomes about whether a specific procedural step (verdict posture, appeal, damages clarity) will surprise versus consensus. In a Bearish 68 regime, the market is more willing to punish risk, but high crosswind risk makes headline reversals common. The conversion trigger to a cleaner trade is a concrete court milestone that resets probability, not incremental commentary.
The Evidence
Hydrated evidence is missing, so we cannot attach court documents or authoritative reports. 7A flags the mechanism as negative with medium role-resolution confidence and marks propagation posture as catalytic. Treat this as a thesis you can still believe, but you should demand dated procedural artefacts before you size it.