Prop 65 notice volume is still high - the market impact is real but issuer-specific and missing here
The Opportunity
The theme is an enforcement cadence signal: hundreds of Prop 65 notices in a single month imply a steady litigation and compliance drag for exposed categories. 7A resolves this SHORT (49% conviction) on the basis that the burden is ongoing and costs are not always cleanly modelled until a notice hits a specific SKU, retailer, or ingredient pathway. The problem is instrumentability: the packet does not identify exposed listed issuers in scope.
The Timing
AVOID is driven by missing mapping, not missing logic. Macro regime is Mixed 58 and the wind context is Headwind 17 for shorts. The conversion condition is to bind a named public company that is either (a) repeatedly targeted or (b) hit in a high-margin product category where reformulation or label changes matter. Without that, it is a background risk theme that can support other shorts but rarely drives a trade alone.
The Evidence
The hydrated evidence is a monthly digest citing January 2026 notice volume and categories. Source: natlawreview.com .