Prediction-market industry set to reach $10 billion annual revenue by 2030, says Citizens

A new analysis by U.S. bank Citizens forecasts the prediction‑market sector soaring to approximately $10 billion a year by 2030, driven by rising trading activity and evolving market mechanics amid regulatory and liquidity hurdles.

A surge in trading activity has pushed the prediction‑market sector to an annualised revenue run‑rate exceeding $3 billion and, according to a new analysis by U.S. bank Citizens, could expand to roughly $10 billion a year by 2030. The bank’s report, produced by analysts led by Devin Ryan, highlights accelerating turnover and improving market mechanics as the principal forces behind the trajectory.

Citizens points to a stepwise evolution in liquidity and participant mix that mirrors the early growth of listed derivatives and digital‑asset markets, with strengthening market structure and initial institutional engagement amplifying depth. "We continue to view ~$10 billion of annual industry revenue by 2030 as a reasonable medium‑term waypoint rather than an end state," the analysts wrote.

Major trading venues already commanding attention include the CFTC‑regulated Kalshi in the United States and decentralised platforms such as Polymarket, both of which have seen notable increases in contract flow and user activity. Industry reports and platform data cited in coverage say some operators processed billions of dollars of notional volume in single months last year, underlining how rapidly turnover has risen.

Citizens’ research shows January activity jumped more than 40% versus December, with February tracking at comparable levels despite a traditional lull after major sporting events. While sports contracts remain a core liquidity source, the mix of traded questions is shifting toward macroeconomic, political and regulatory outcomes that better match institutional hedging needs.

Analysts argue prediction markets offer targeted ways to hedge discrete risks , from inflation surprises to corporate approvals , without the basis risk inherent in proxy trades such as index futures or broad options positions. Citizens foresees revenue streams broadening beyond transaction fees into data products, research services and financing as professional participants increase their footprint.

Despite the bullish outlook, observers warn significant headwinds remain. Regulatory uncertainty, fragmentation of liquidity across numerous venues and the infancy of standardised settlement practices could restrain growth or delay institutional on‑ramps. Separate research by Eilers & Krejcik has even contemplated far larger eventual scale, suggesting annual volumes could reach the trillion‑dollar range by decade’s end if mass adoption occurs.

The composition of revenue across firms also varies, with some mainstream brokerages and fintech platforms already deriving meaningful returns from event trading. Coverage indicates certain firms’ prediction‑market offerings have become among their fastest‑growing products, representing a notable slice of corporate revenue for those providers as the ecosystem develops.

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Source: Noah Wire Services