Prediction markets see record activity driven by geopolitical and sporting events in February

On-chain prediction platforms experienced an unprecedented surge in activity in February, with over 38 million transactions amidst growing retail and institutional interest and evolving regulatory landscape.

Prediction markets recorded an unprecedented spike in activity late in February, with on-chain platforms processing roughly 38.01 million transactions in the week through 23 February 2026, signalling a rapid expansion of retail and institutional interest in event-based trading. Industry reporting and market trackers have pointed to a cluster of high-profile events and renewed crypto momentum as catalysts for the surge. Sources: [6],[5]

The week’s activity was heavily concentrated at the top of the sector. Polymarket accounted for the largest share with about 22.58 million transactions, while Kalshi posted roughly 14.86 million; Opinion, which focuses on price-prediction contracts, registered about 227,500 trades. The figures underscore how a small number of venues continue to capture the bulk of market turnover. Sources: [6],[5]

Prediction markets enable participants to buy and sell binary positions on the outcomes of real-world events , from elections and macroeconomic releases to sports results and crypto price moves , with settlement often governed by smart contracts that execute payouts automatically when conditions are met. That model has helped attract users seeking alternatives to traditional wagering or new hedging instruments. Sources: [6],[5]

The competitive landscape reflects differing regulatory and product approaches. Kalshi, operating as a regulated exchange in the United States, has pushed into sports and high-volume event products, a strategy that helped it reach record weekly notional volumes during Super Bowl 60. According to market trackers, that event drove a multi-billion-dollar trading week for the firm and highlighted Kalshi’s fast-growing share of conventional-event trading. Sources: [2],[4]

By contrast, Polymarket remains a crypto-native venue with substantial on-chain liquidity and open interest measured in hundreds of millions of dollars, positioning it as the dominant platform for crypto-focused and “high-signal” geopolitical markets. Analysts describe the rivalry between Kalshi’s regulated, high-turnover contracts and Polymarket’s longer-duration, signal-driven markets as a defining tension in the space. Sources: [5],[6],[7]

Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying even as volumes climb. Kalshi recently announced a public penalty for insider trading tied to a high-profile YouTube event, the first such disclosure in the industry, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has defended the operation of event-contract markets as akin to futures and therefore within its remit. That combination of enforcement action and regulatory advocacy highlights both the sector’s maturation and the legal complexities surrounding event-based trading. Sources: [3],[4]

Market participants and observers point to several drivers behind the recent record: lower on-chain transaction costs and improved onboarding tools have reduced friction for new users; heightened geopolitical uncertainty and major sporting fixtures have produced episodic spikes in demand; and broader crypto-market rekindling through January saw total prediction-market volume surge to new annual highs. Together, these forces have fuelled a period of concentrated growth even as the market remains top-heavy. Sources: [6],[2],[5]

Source Reference Map Inspired by headline at: [1]

Sources by paragraph: - Paragraph 1: [6], [5] - Paragraph 2: [6], [5] - Paragraph 3: [6], [5] - Paragraph 4: [2], [4] - Paragraph 5: [5], [6], [7] - Paragraph 6: [3], [4] - Paragraph 7: [6], [2], [5]

Source: Noah Wire Services