Prediction‑market giants Polymarket and Kalshi battle for dominance as US trading soars to $800 million daily

Polymarket and Kalshi are leading the rapidly expanding prediction‑market sector, with trading volumes reaching new peaks of over $800 million per day amid diverging regulatory and technical strate...

Polymarket and Kalshi have emerged as the dominant forces in the burgeoning prediction‑market sector, which has seen trading surge to fresh heights in recent months. Industry trackers recorded a peak single‑day trading volume that surpassed $800m in January 2026, with Kalshi responsible for roughly two‑thirds of that spike, underscoring how concentrated activity has become between the two platforms.

The platforms operate on fundamentally different legal and technical foundations. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and settles in USDC, attracting a global, crypto‑native user base. By contrast, Kalshi holds a CFTC Designated Contract Market licence and has positioned itself as a fully regulated US exchange, a distinction that has shaped where each can compete and who they can serve.

That divergence is reflected in volumes and revenue profiles. On reported notional trading, Polymarket has registered higher cumulative volume in recent periods while Kalshi’s on‑chain activity has also shown substantial weekly surges, at times overtaking Polymarket. At the same time, Kalshi’s revenues have been driven by heavy activity in US sports markets, leading to outsized quarterly returns during major seasons.

Commercial trajectories differ as a result. Kalshi’s regulated status and strong US footprint have helped it monetise aggressively, attracting institutional investment and scaling retail distribution. Polymarket only began taking fees more recently, leaning instead on its blockchain model and larger, less frequent wagers concentrated in political and macroeconomic markets. Both firms have demonstrated the ability to convert volume into meaningful revenue, albeit through distinct strategies.

Both companies are also racing on product and channel fronts. Kalshi has forged distribution links that integrated its markets into mainstream retail flows, while Polymarket has pursued developer‑facing infrastructure to broaden access to liquidity. At the same time, large platform players and brokerages are exploring their own regulated trading venues, a shift that could reroute future retail flows and alter competitive dynamics in the US market.

As trading records continue to be set and institutional capital flows in, the market looks likely to consolidate around platforms that can combine deep liquidity, clear regulatory status and broad distribution. How regulation, new exchange entrants and continuing product innovation reshape which model proves more durable will determine whether the sector remains dominated by the current leaders or opens to new challengers.

Source Reference Map Inspired by headline at: [1]

Sources by paragraph: - Paragraph 1: [4], [2] - Paragraph 2: [2], [3] - Paragraph 3: [2], [4] - Paragraph 4: [3], [2] - Paragraph 5: [2], [4] - Paragraph 6: [4], [3]

Source: Noah Wire Services